Niceville FL Real Estate Market Report
Niceville has 152 active detached homes and 65 pending homes. The clearest change this week is aging inventory.
Active listings above 90 reported days on market rose from 57 to 62, and their share of current inventory increased from 38.3% to 40.8%. Pending inventory edged up by one, so the evidence does not say buyers disappeared. It says a larger share of today's competition is sitting longer.
Median reported DOM: 58.5
Median reported DOM: 25
Aug. 16-Sept. 14
More of the active competition is aging.
Compared with September 7, active inventory increased from 149 to 152 and pending inventory increased from 64 to 65. The trailing-30-day closing count fell from 47 to 41. More important for a seller watching the current competition, active listings above 90 reported DOM increased from 57 to 62.
The recent closed-sale timing mix changed very little. In the trailing 90 days, 44.4% of usable-DOM closings had 15 DOM or less, compared with 45.6% last week, and 54.9% had 30 DOM or less, compared with 55.0%. The clearer week-over-week move is in unsold inventory, not a proven change in home values.
Five sales are not a market trend. Longer windows give the context.
Only five detached-home sales closed in the trailing seven-day window. Their sold prices ranged from $465,000 to $630,690. That sample is too small to treat its median as a change in the value of the same Niceville home.
| Period | Exact Dates | Closings | Median Sold | Median Sold $/SqFt | Median Reported DOM | Dollar-Weighted Sold / Final List |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 7 Days | Sept. 8-Sept. 14 | 5 | $480,000 | $247 | 22 | 99.5% |
| Last 30 Days | Aug. 16-Sept. 14 | 41 | $499,900 | $256 | 36 | 99.1% |
| Last 90 Days | June 17-Sept. 14 | 163 | $560,000 | $261 | 25.5* | 98.8% |
| Last 180 Days | March 19-Sept. 14 | 338 | $550,000 | $258 | 16.5* | 98.6% |
| 2026 YTD | Jan. 1-Sept. 14 | 464 | $529,900 | $255 | 22* | 98.7% |
| Last 365 Days | Sept. 15, 2025-Sept. 14, 2026 | 618 | $527,750 | $251 | 26* | 98.6% |
*Negative reported-DOM values were treated as unusable for DOM calculations. This excludes one DOM value from the 90-day median, two from the 180-day median, and three from YTD and 365-day medians. Those sales remain in closing, price and price-capture calculations. "Final list" means the List Price field in the supplied export. It is not proven to be the exact asking price when the contract was accepted.
The 15-Day Reported-DOM Matrix
Among 162 trailing-90-day closed sales with a usable reported-DOM value, 72 had 15 DOM or less. One additional sale remains in the 163-sale price sample but is excluded from the DOM matrix because its reported DOM was negative.
| Reported DOM | Homes | Share | Cumulative Share | Median Individual Sold / Final List |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-15 Days | 72 | 44.4% | 44.4% | 100.0% |
| 16-30 Days | 17 | 10.5% | 54.9% | 98.3% |
| 31-60 Days | 29 | 17.9% | 72.8% | 99.2% |
| 61-90 Days | 14 | 8.6% | 81.5% | 98.6% |
| 91-180 Days | 23 | 14.2% | 95.7% | 99.2% |
| 181+ Days | 7 | 4.3% | 100.0% | 100.0% |
See the Complete Day 15 Review
Current pending inventory provides a second timing signal
Among the 65 current pending listings, 26 have 15 reported DOM or less, 35 have 30 or less, and 46 have 60 or less.
Median pending reported DOM is 25. Pending DOM describes the current pending snapshot. It does not prove that price alone caused a property to attract a contract.
The Day-15 price-capture relationship is still visible, but the short-window gap narrowed.
For this comparison, price capture equals total sold dollars divided by total final-list dollars within each group. It shows an association. It does not prove that additional days caused the difference.
| Closed-Sale Window | 15 DOM Or Less | More Than 15 DOM | Observed Gap | Hypothetical $500K Illustration |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 90 Days | 99.5% (72 sales) | 98.1% (90 sales) | 1.4 points | About $6,800 |
| Last 180 Days | 99.5% (164 sales) | 97.7% (172 sales) | 1.8 points | About $9,100 |
| Last 365 Days | 99.7% (265 sales) | 97.8% (350 sales) | 2.0 points | About $9,800 |
Original asking price to closing
The current 400-day detached-home sold cohort contains 685 sales. The figures below compare aggregate averages for the complete cohort.
Original list to final list
$10,769 difference between the aggregate average original and final list prices.
Aggregate final list was 98.2% of aggregate original list.
Final list to sold
$7,990 difference between the aggregate average final list and sold prices.
Aggregate sold was 98.6% of aggregate final list.
Original list to sold
$18,759 difference between the aggregate averages.
Aggregate sold was 96.8% of aggregate original list.
Important limitation: these are aggregate cohort averages, not the typical seller's result or proof of money lost because of market time. The export does not establish its List Price field as the exact asking price at contract acceptance.
How old is Niceville's active inventory?
The median active listing has 58.5 reported DOM. Of the 152 active detached listings, 62 have more than 90 reported DOM.
There is not one Niceville market.
Compare active asking-price bands with trailing-30-day closings grouped by sold price. This shows where current competition is concentrated.
| Price Range | Active Now | Closed Last 30 Days | Active Listings Per Recent Closing |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under $400,000 | 27 | 9 | 3.0 |
| $400,000-$599,999 | 49 | 22 | 2.2 |
| $600,000-$799,999 | 38 | 4 | 9.5 |
| $800,000-$999,999 | 20 | 3 | 6.7 |
| $1 Million+ | 18 | 3 | 6.0 |
Niceville 2026, month by month
August remains the last completed month. September is partial through the 9:04 a.m. source pull on September 14.
| Month | Closed | Median Sold | Median Sold $/SqFt | Median Reported DOM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | 53 | $480,000 | $245 | 38 |
| February | 32 | $437,450 | $238 | 48* |
| March | 66 | $530,000 | $248 | 17 |
| April | 45 | $506,000 | $261 | 15 |
| May | 64 | $500,000 | $256 | 15* |
| June | 74 | $623,450 | $260 | 15.5 |
| July | 65 | $575,000 | $266 | 19 |
| August | 52 | $484,500 | $253 | 37* |
| September through Sept. 14 at 9:04 a.m. | 13 | $480,000 | $249 | 28 |
*February, May and August each exclude one negative reported-DOM value from the monthly DOM median. MLS records can be corrected after publication. The September 14 source contains eight closings dated September 1-7, compared with six shown in the September 7 report.
Green. Yellow. Red. Make the decision from evidence.
This traffic-light system is a seller decision framework. It is not a claim that price alone determines market time.
Launch and listen.
Watch qualified showings, repeat visits, offers and the competing homes buyers can choose instead.
Review the evidence.
Do not reduce automatically. Do not ignore buyer behavior. Decide whether price, condition, terms, presentation, access or another source of friction needs to change.
Challenge the current position.
Stop assuming more time by itself will solve the problem. Holding firm can still be right, but the evidence should support it.
Your house does not sell at the Niceville median.
It sells against the homes your buyer can choose instead. Compare your home with the active competition, relevant pending homes and recent sales that actually match your property.
How this Niceville market report is built
The supplied ECAR/Flexmls CMA and CSV contain all Residential subtypes. To preserve the established methodology and week-over-week comparability of this permanent Niceville report, all report calculations are filtered to the Detached Single Family rows in the current export.
Source
ECAR/Flexmls Residential CMA and matching CSV export
Listings as of September 14, 2026 at 9:04 a.m. CMA prepared at 9:07 a.m.
Market Definition
ECAR Area 13 - Niceville
Report cohort: Residential, Detached Single Family. The supplied source package also contains other Residential subtypes, which are excluded from the report calculations.
Current Report Cohort Counts
152 Active
65 Pending
685 Sold
39 Expired
140 Cancelled
10 Temp Off Market
2 Coming Soon
1,093 detached-single-family listing records.
What date windows are used?
Trailing periods end September 14, 2026. Seven days: September 8-September 14. Thirty days: August 16-September 14. Ninety days: June 17-September 14. One hundred eighty days: March 19-September 14. YTD: January 1-September 14. Trailing 365 days: September 15, 2025-September 14, 2026.
What statuses and filters are in the source?
The supplied CMA searched Property Type Residential; statuses Active, Cancelled, Coming Soon, Expired, Pending, Sold and Temp Off Market; and ECAR Area 13 - Niceville. Under Contract Date and Sold Date use relative 400-day lookbacks. Expiration, withdrawal and cancellation date filters run from September 14, 2025 through September 14, 2036. For this report, the matching row-level export is then filtered to Detached Single Family to preserve the permanent-page methodology. Qualifying new-construction listings remain included.
Why is the report limited to detached single-family homes when the source contains other Residential subtypes?
The permanent Niceville report has been built as a detached-single-family report. Changing to all Residential subtypes this week would mix attached units, condominiums, mobile homes and other property types into a series that has been presented as detached homes. The current CSV supports an exact Detached Single Family filter, so this update keeps the established scope and discloses the broader source pull.
Does ECAR Area 13 equal the legal City of Niceville?
Not necessarily. This report uses ECAR Area 13 - Niceville. That MLS geography does not necessarily match the legal municipal boundary of the City of Niceville.
How are negative DOM values handled?
Three sold records in the detached cohort contain negative reported-DOM values. Negative DOM is not a usable measure of market time, so those values are excluded from DOM medians and DOM buckets. The underlying sales remain in closing counts, price statistics and price-capture calculations.
What does final list mean?
It means the List Price field in the supplied export. The source does not prove that field is the exact asking price at the moment the contract was accepted.
How is price capture calculated?
The multi-window snapshot and Day-15 comparison use dollar-weighted price capture: total sold dollars divided by total final-list dollars for the stated group. The DOM matrix separately shows the median of individual sold-price-to-final-list-price ratios.
Why is September not called complete?
The source was pulled at 9:04 a.m. on September 14. September remains an incomplete month, and closings or MLS updates entered later will change the total.
Are these numbers an appraisal?
No. These statistics describe groups of listing records and sales. They are not an appraisal, prediction or estimate of an individual home's value or sale outcome. MLS records may also be corrected after publication.
Source: ECARMLS/Flexmls Residential CMA and matching row-level export, listings as of September 14, 2026 at 9:04 a.m. Market: ECAR Area 13 - Niceville. Report cohort: Residential, Detached Single Family, filtered from the broader Residential source package for continuity. Counts represent listing records, not necessarily unique physical properties. Aggregate analysis is used rather than republishing listing-level records. Permanent URL: uberrealty.com/niceville-market-report. Analysis: Uber Realty.
Niceville Real Estate Market FAQ
What changed in the Niceville market this week?
Compared with September 7, active detached inventory increased from 149 to 152 and pending inventory increased from 64 to 65. The trailing-30-day closing count fell from 47 to 41. Active listings above 90 reported DOM increased from 57 to 62, and their share of active inventory increased from 38.3% to 40.8%.
How many detached homes are currently active in the Niceville MLS area?
The September 14 report cohort contains 152 active detached-single-family listing records. Their median asking price is $600,450 and median reported DOM is 58.5.
How many Niceville detached homes are pending?
The current report cohort contains 65 pending detached-single-family listing records. Their median asking price is $612,000 and median reported DOM is 25.
What is the current median sold price?
The trailing-30-day median sold price is $499,900. The trailing-90-day median is $560,000. The 2026 YTD median is $529,900. Different windows contain different groups of homes.
Should my Niceville house be under contract in 15 days?
Not necessarily. In the current trailing-90-day sample, 44.4% of closings with usable reported DOM had 15 DOM or less. Day 15 is a useful evidence review point, not an automatic price-reduction deadline.
Does longer market time automatically mean a lower selling price?
No. The data shows an association between the Day-15 split and final-list price capture. It does not prove that additional days caused the difference. Price range, condition, location, seller decisions and sale mix can affect both.
Does more aging inventory mean every seller should lower the price?
No. Aging is a reason to review the evidence, not an automatic instruction. Compare the home with the properties competing for the same buyer, relevant pending activity, comparable sales, condition, presentation, access, terms and actual buyer response.