Niceville FL Real Estate Market Report
There are fewer homes competing for buyers, and fewer of those listings are deeply aged. Niceville has 131 active detached-home listing records, down from 143 last week. Listings over 90 reported days on market fell from 55 to 49.
Median reported DOM: 54
Median reported DOM: 31
Sept. 5-Oct. 4
Competition eased without a collapse in pending activity
Active listings fell by 12, from 143 to 131. Pending listings moved from 70 to 68, while trailing-30-day closings increased from 30 to 33. Median active reported DOM improved from 57 to 54.
Just as important, active listings over 90 reported DOM fell from 55 to 49. That is 37.4% of active inventory, compared with 38.5% last week.
Seller meaning: there is less active competition than a week ago, but 49 older listings still matter. Compare your home with what buyers can choose today, especially inside your price range.
Short-window prices are higher, but sample size and property mix still matter
The 30-day median sold price is $595,000 across 33 closings. The 90-day median is $540,000 across 151 closings. These are citywide cohort medians, not an estimate of an individual home's value.
| Window | Exact Dates | Closed | Median Sold | Median Sold $/SqFt | Median Reported DOM | Dollar-Weighted Capture |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 Days | Sept. 28-Oct. 4 | 9 | $620,000 | $247 | 36 | 98.1% |
| 30 Days | Sept. 5-Oct. 4 | 33 | $595,000 | $247 | 44 | 97.8% |
| 90 Days | July 7-Oct. 4 | 151 | $540,000 | $239 | 45 | 97.6% |
| 180 Days | April 8-Oct. 4 | 315 | $530,000 | $239 | 45 | 97.7% |
| 2026 YTD | Jan. 1-Oct. 4 | 447 | $520,000 | $239 | 42 | 97.8% |
| 365 Days | Oct. 5, 2025-Oct. 4, 2026 | 625 | $515,000 | $237 | 40 | 97.7% |
One negative reported-DOM value is excluded from the 90-day DOM median and matrix. Two are excluded from the 180-day DOM median. Three are excluded from YTD and 365-day DOM medians. Those sales remain in valid closing, price and price-capture calculations.
42% of the usable 90-day sold cohort closed with 15 reported DOM or less
The trailing-90-day cohort contains 151 closed sales. 150 have usable reported DOM for this matrix.
| Reported DOM | Closed Sales | Share | Cumulative Share | Median Individual Sold / Final List |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-15 | 63 | 42.0% | 42.0% | 99.3% |
| 16-30 | 22 | 14.7% | 56.7% | 98.4% |
| 31-60 | 24 | 16.0% | 72.7% | 98.5% |
| 61-90 | 13 | 8.7% | 81.3% | 98.5% |
| 91-180 | 21 | 14.0% | 95.3% | 96.5% |
| 181+ | 7 | 4.7% | 100.0% | 96.1% |
The pending pool is a little faster than last week
Among 68 current pending listings, 25 have 15 reported DOM or less, 34 have 30 or less, and 46 have 60 or less. Median pending reported DOM improved from 36 last week to 31.
Pending DOM describes the current pending snapshot. It does not prove that price alone caused a property to attract a contract.
Faster sales still show about a two-point price-capture gap
Price capture equals total sold dollars divided by total final-list dollars within each group. The relationship is descriptive, not proof that extra market time caused the difference.
| Closed-Sale Window | 15 DOM Or Less | More Than 15 DOM | Observed Gap | Hypothetical $500K Illustration |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 90 Days | 99.0% (63 sales) | 97.1% (87 sales) | 1.9 points | About $9,500 |
| Last 180 Days | 99.0% (121 sales) | 97.2% (192 sales) | 1.8 points | About $9,000 |
| Last 365 Days | 99.1% (253 sales) | 97.1% (369 sales) | 2.0 points | About $10,000 |
Faster and slower sales can differ in price range, condition, location, seller decisions and other factors. The dollar examples illustrate the percentage-point gap on $500,000. They are not predicted seller outcomes.
The larger aggregate price change happened before the final list price
The current 400-day source contains 668 closed sales. Across that cohort, the average original list price was $659,463, the average final list price was $622,736, and the average sold price was $608,620.
Original list to final list
$36,727 difference between the aggregate averages.
Aggregate final list was 94.4% of aggregate original list.
Final list to sold
$14,116 difference between the aggregate averages.
Aggregate sold was 97.7% of aggregate final list.
Original list to sold
$50,843 difference between the aggregate averages.
Aggregate sold was 92.3% of aggregate original list.
These are aggregate cohort averages, not the typical seller's result or proof of money lost because of market time. The export does not establish its List Price field as the exact asking price at contract acceptance.
49 active listings have passed 90 reported days on market
The median active listing has 54 reported DOM. Of 131 active detached-home listing records, 49 have more than 90 reported DOM.
49 of 131 active listings are over 90 reported DOM. That is 37.4%, down from 38.5% last week.
$800,000 to $999,999 is the most crowded band in this 30-day comparison
That band has 19 active listings and one trailing-30-day closing. Because one closing is a very small denominator, the 19.0 ratio can change sharply from week to week.
| Price Range | Active Now | Closed Last 30 Days | Active Listings Per Recent Closing |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under $400,000 | 25 | 7 | 3.6 |
| $400,000-$599,999 | 45 | 13 | 3.5 |
| $600,000-$799,999 | 25 | 6 | 4.2 |
| $800,000-$999,999 | 19 | 1 | 19.0 |
| $1 Million+ | 17 | 6 | 2.8 |
Active listings are grouped by current asking price and trailing-30-day closings by sold price. This is a simple competition comparison, not formal months of inventory.
September closed with 39 Niceville detached-home sales
September is now complete in this source. October is partial through the 2:00 p.m. source pull on October 4.
| Month | Closed | Median Sold | Median Sold $/SqFt | Median Reported DOM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | 35 | $505,000 | $240 | 34 |
| February | 33 | $460,000 | $229 | 42* |
| March | 64 | $529,500 | $235 | 34 |
| April | 51 | $494,000 | $227 | 54 |
| May | 53 | $530,000 | $241 | 42* |
| June | 60 | $518,500 | $239 | 43 |
| July | 59 | $525,000 | $232 | 46 |
| August | 51 | $520,000 | $238 | 38* |
| September | 39 | $595,000 | $247 | 44 |
| October through Oct. 4 at 2:00 p.m. | 2 | $605,000 | $250 | 38 |
*February, May and August each contain one negative reported-DOM value excluded from that month's DOM median. The current source now shows 33 February closings, one more than the prior published table. MLS records can be corrected after publication, so this report uses the current source rather than carrying the older count forward.
Use market time as a review schedule, not a verdict
Watch the first buyer response
Track qualified showings, repeat interest, serious questions, offers and how buyers compare your home with current alternatives.
Review the evidence
Look for repeated objections, new competition, comparable homes going pending, condition, presentation, terms, access and price position.
Reassess the current position
Older market time does not prove overpricing. It does mean the seller should seriously review what buyers are choosing instead and whether a change is justified.
Your home competes inside a much smaller market than the citywide median
The useful next step is to compare your home with active, pending and recently sold homes that match its location, price range, age, size, condition and features.
What these numbers measure
Source scope and listing counts
Source: ECAR/Flexmls Residential CMA and matching row-level CSV pulled October 4, 2026 at 2:00 p.m. Geography: Area 13 - Niceville. Property type: Residential. Subtype: Detached Single Family. Included source statuses: Active, Cancelled, Coming Soon, Expired, Pending, Sold and Temp Off Market. The source uses a 400-day lookback for contract and sold-date filtering.
Counts are MLS listing records. They should not automatically be interpreted as unique physical properties.
How price capture is calculated
Dollar-weighted price capture equals total Sold Price divided by total List Price for the cohort. The report labels the exported List Price as final list price for reporting purposes. The source does not prove that this was the exact asking price at contract acceptance.
How reported DOM is handled
Blank, nonnumeric or negative reported-DOM values are excluded only from DOM calculations. The underlying sale remains in valid closing-count, price and price-capture calculations. One negative DOM record affects the 90-day window, two affect the 180-day window, and three affect YTD and the 365-day window.
What the report cannot prove
City medians do not determine the value of an individual home. Market-time and price-capture relationships are associations, not proof that one caused the other. Property mix, location, condition, size, price range, seller decisions and other factors can change the result.
Questions this week's Niceville numbers raise
Does fewer active listings mean my home will sell faster?
No. Active competition fell this week, but your result still depends on how your home compares with the choices buyers see in its specific price range, location, condition and feature set.
Should I cut the price if I reach Day 15?
Not automatically. Day 15 is a review date. Look at buyer activity, feedback, repeat interest, competing listings and comparable homes going pending before deciding whether anything should change.
Why is the $800,000 to $999,999 ratio so high?
There are 19 active listings in that range and only one closing in the trailing 30 days. With a denominator of one closing, the ratio is fragile and can change quickly. The actual competing homes matter more than the ratio by itself.
Does the 30-day median of $595,000 mean my Niceville home is worth that?
No. It is the middle sold price among 33 closings from September 5 through October 4. Your home's value depends on its own comparable properties and characteristics.
What should I compare before choosing a list price?
Start with the active homes buyers can choose instead, the pending homes buyers recently chose, and the most comparable recent sales. Then adjust for location, size, condition, age, features and current competition.
Source note: Aggregate analysis by Uber Realty from an ECAR/Flexmls Residential CMA and matching CSV for Area 13 - Niceville, Detached Single Family, pulled October 4, 2026 at 2:00 p.m. The source included 1,065 listing records across the selected statuses, including 131 Active, 68 Pending and 668 Sold/Closed records. This page reports aggregate analysis and does not republish listing-level records. MLS information is deemed reliable but not guaranteed and may be corrected after publication.
Permanent report URL: https://www.uberrealty.com/niceville-market-report